
News: I am honoured to receive the NEU DC 2025 Distinguished Papers Award and the German Economics Association Prize for the second-best doctoral dissertation in Development Economics in 2024.
Hi! I teach Environmental Economics at King’s College Business School, work as a postdoctoral economist at the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance, and consult for the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group).
Research Summary
My research studies technology adoption, global value chains, energy and the environment in the context of climate change and sustainable development. Industrial policies and causal inference are cross-cutting areas of interest. In past and ongoing work, I examine upgrading in global value chains, adoption and manufacturing of clean energy technologies, and diversification in deindustrializing regions. Using an empirical, microeconomic approach, I work closely with government agencies on experimental and quasi-experimental studies to generate rigorous evidence for policy.
Job Market Paper
Stronger Together? Female Export Consortia
(with Amira Bouziri and Fabian Scheifele)
Abstract ▼
Cornell Blogpost 2024
IGC Blogpost 2023
IGC Funding
Paper
Exporting offers high private and public returns, yet in most countries, only a few large, male-managed firms engage in exporting. We incentivize small, female-managed firms to form a consortium, a corporate group, to test whether they can collectively overcome the fixed export costs. We randomize 176 firms into four sectoral consortia or a control group and study the consortium’s effect on firm performance. After two years, treated firms are 16pp (+63%) more likely to export and doubled their sales. The results are driven by consortia members expanding and using their business networks more, gaining entrepreneurial confidence, and improving management practices. Yet, cooperation is also costly. Only half of the invited firms ultimately join the consortium and conflicts arise during cooperation, suggesting careful selection and conflict resolution mechanisms would improve the intervention. Incentivizing horizontal integration of small firms offers a cost-effective, scalable way to share investment costs for export or technology adoption, with the potential to foster broader economic development.
Work-In-Progress
Green Industrial Policy: Global Export Restrictions on Critical Minerals and Upgrading in Green Value Chains
(IGC Small Research Grant 2024)
Abstract ▼
The rise in demand for minerals essential to digitalization and decarbonization technologies may present growth opportunities for mineral-rich low- and middle-income countries, although these nations have historically struggled to leverage past resource booms for economic diversification. This paper focuses on global export restrictions on raw materials, a policy tool increasingly adopted by low-and middle-income countries between 2009-2021. It combines LLM and expert classification to identify downstream products indirectly treated via input-output relationships and products‘ value chain stage, e.g. raw material vs. sub-component, in green value chains. Using event studies, I find export restrictions lower upstream exports of directly targeted products in the short term, but promote downstream export of sub-components within 3-5 years. What is more, upstream exports resurge within 5-7 years, potentially driven by backward linkages from downstream exports, and more than offset the short-term drop.
Fostering Innovation using AI in De-Industrialized Coal Region in Czech Republic
(with Stephan J. Anderson, Leonardo Iacovone, Marianna Perreira-Lopez, and Andreas Menzel)
WP coming soonWorld Bank Report 2025
Abstract ▼
In two structurally disadvantaged Czech regions facing economic decline from coal exit, we test in a RCT with 173 firms whether AI-focused group workshops could overcome the conservative business mindset inhibiting innovation & growth. The treatment proved effective for all, but especially effective for firms with higher risk-aversion, showing treatment effects on AI adoption nearly three times larger than for less risk-averse firms. Multiple employee participation further amplified these effects, with firms sending several representatives achieving greater technology adoption and implementation. Results demonstrate that even in transition regions with low trust and limited business collaboration, properly designed group training can foster new business connections and knowledge exchange, enabling successful technology adoption and measurable business growth.
Heat Pumps in the Wild: Evidence from Installations across the UK
(with Ralf Martin and Aurélien Saussay)
Abstract ▼
Heating buildings contributed about 20 per cent of global CO₂ emissions. Decarbonizing heating requires substituting fossil fuel-based with renewable technologies. This technological change promises environmental benefits but comes with financial costs and (perceived) uncertainty about the new technologies‘ performance. We examine the effect of adopting heat pumps on electricity and gas consumption, energy bills, and heating-related CO₂ emissions in a staggered difference-in-difference design exploring the timing and variation of heat pump adoption within postcode areas in the United Kingdom. We find heat pump adoption reduces gas consumption and increases electricity consumption, resulting in a net reduction of energy consumption. Due to the higher price of electricity, heat pumps result in an average increase in energy bills. Thanks to lower net energy consumption and the simultaneous decarbonisation of the electricity grid, heat pumps become cleaner than gas boilers and save CO₂ emissions. Finally, we find no evidence for learning-by-doing among installers. Instead, large installers and installers in the most competitive markets seem to perform better.
E-commerce for Export
(with Amira Bouziri and Fabian Scheifele)
Draft available upon request
Abstract ▼
E-commerce offers new opportunities for firms in developing countries to market their products directly to more and even foreign clients with a higher ability to pay. We conduct a randomized controlled trial with international donors and the Tunisian Export Promotion Agency in which we provide half of 236 SMEs with an e-commerce training, a trained student intern, and a fully subsidized website and/or digital marketing appearance. We find positive and significant effects on knowledge of e-commerce and online revenues, despite no statistically significant improvement in technology adoption. These effects do not, however, translated into more exporting either at the intensive or extensive margin.
Working Paper
Attracting Firms to Government Programs: Theory and Evidence from Email Experiments in Tunisia
(with Amira Bouziri, Fabian Scheifele, Kais Jomaa, and Teo Firpo)
Abstract ▼
IGL Working Paper
Governments spend over a billion US dollars annually on firm support programs, yet application rates are low and outcomes modest. Attracting enough and the right firms may alter the program’s effect and statistical power to detect it. Yet, we document that most firm program evaluations don’t report recruitment strategies. We conduct two email experiments involving 5000 SMEs while recruiting for two export support programs in Tunisia, tracking each communication channel’s contribution to registrations. In experiment 1, we find goal-specific messages targeting firms‘ supply or demand side constraints attract fewer but better-performing firms. In experiment 2, we find an influencer video emphasizing program benefits attracts better-performing female-led firms, while reducing participation costs via free childcare attracts less-performing firms managed by younger female entrepreneurs with children. Finally, we show open communication channels attract more underrepresented firms. In general, the findings suggest recruitment strategies substantially impact sample size and composition.
Published Paper
The Interplay between Innovation, Standards, and Regulation in Globalising Economy
(with Knut Blind) Journal of Cleaner Production, 2024, Vol. 445
Abstract ▼
Paper
To examine the different roles of regulation and standards in the age of globalisation, we hypothesize and investigate the relation of regulation and national and international standards on the one hand with innovation input (R&D expenditure) and innovation output (patents) on the other hand. The analysis is based on data of 26 high-income countries between 1998 and 2018. There are two main results. Firstly, international standards outperform both de-regulation and national standardisation as they are positively associated with R&D expenditure and patenting. On the other hand, national standards – once believed a source of competitiveness – are negatively related to patents and hence seem to localize economies and slow-down innovation. Secondly, de-regulation does not correlate positively with R&D expenditure, but with increased patenting. We argue the former suggest businesses did not – as assumed – spend freed up resources on R&D, but instead strategically used patenting to replace lost regulation-based protection with patent fences. This casts doubts on the added social value of de-regulation induced innovation.
Nurturing National Champions? Local Content in Solar Auctions and Firm Innovation
(with Fabian Scheifele) Energy Policy, 2023, Vol. 179
Abstract ▼
Paper
Rather than by an invisible hand, many industries are kick-started by a government policy. Despite little robust evidence, local content requirements are increasingly used to incentivize domestic manufacturing if imports are cheaper. To examine the effect of local content, we explore an unintended quasi-policy-experiment. Starting in 2013, the Indian government simultaneously held solar auctions with and without local content, providing an otherwise unobserved counterfactual. We digitize the results from the 41 auctions worth 8.65 billion $ in solar module demand and collect annual revenue and solar patents of the 113 participating firms between 2004–2020. For causal identification, we compare winners of local content with similar open auction winners in a staggered difference-in-difference estimation. While we observe an insignificant increase in the same and the following year after firms win LCR auctions, overall, we find winning local content auctions does not significantly increase firms’ solar patents or sales. We identify three reasons why the policy did not create stronger, lasting effects. First, local content did not create sufficient production to enable learning by doing. Second, local content did not generate enough revenue for re-investment into R&D. Third, local content reduced competition in auctions. The analysis underlines the predicament countries face as open auction winners, despite having won 9 times as much capacity, do not patent much (more).
The Design of Technical Requirements in Public Solar Auctions: Evidence from India
(with Adela Marian) Renewable & Sustainable Energy Review, 2022, Vol. 154
Abstract ▼
Paper
Solar technology diffuses across the globe as countries transition from fossil to renewable energy. Little solar-specific experience and capacity in newly adopting countries can result in technical failures and lower solar plant performance. This contributes to making the investment in solar plants in newcomer countries risky and may undermine political targets of solar energy deployment. One solution suggested by international organizations is for policymakers in adopting countries to include international quality standards as technical requirements in public auctions. Here, we develop a conceptual framework on how international quality standards could help build a solar sector. As a case study, we analyze the explanatory factors of technical requirements in 100 public auctions of utility-scale solar photovoltaic plants carried out in India between 2013 and 2019. Our findings suggest that more international quality standards are required in auctions in which the government rather than a private actor ultimately carries the commercial risk. On the other hand, local content requirements and attracting foreign investors do not correlate with technical requirements. We argue that using minimal quality standards is unlikely to promote local technological catch-up or attract long-term foreign investments but transfers the techno-commercial risk from the government to the private sector.